The Morning Briefing · Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Published 07:15 CET · 5-minute read
Good morning. Two events today could set the tone for markets on Monday: Brazil chooses its next president in a near-tied race, and core OPEC+ producers meet with oil still above $100 a barrel. Here is what you need to know.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- Brazil votes. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are neck and neck, and a runoff on October 25 looks likely.
- OPEC+ meets. Producers are expected to keep November quotas unchanged, with Brent at about $102.
- UK diesel hits £2 a litre. A record that adds almost £32 to a full tank since February.
- Spanish pensions eye a 3.5% rise. September inflation of 4.9% lifts the estimate for 2027.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,722.72 | +0.7% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,190.86 | +1.2% |
| Dow Jones | 51,176.96 | +0.5% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | ↑ higher | ↑ higher |
| IBEX 35 | 19,085.3 | +0.42% |
| Brent crude | $102.25 | ≈ flat |
| Gold | Above $4,150/oz | ↓ lower on the week |
| EUR/USD | ≈1.125 | +0.1% |
| US 10-year yield | ≈5.3% | ↑ higher on the week |
Friday’s rally followed weak US jobs data that cooled bets on a Fed rate hike, but most indices still ended the week lower: the Dow lost 1.3% and the S&P 500 0.3%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.5%. The IBEX 35 fell 3.12% over the week, its worst since April, as government bond yields climbed (AP, PressDigital).
🌍 Economy
Brazil goes to the polls in a statistical tie. Nearly 160 million voters choose a president today, and the final Quaest poll put Lula on 46% of valid votes against 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro, within the margin of error. If no one wins more than half, a runoff follows on October 25. Investors see the vote as a choice between two very different paths for public spending and the Brazilian real (Euronews, Exame).
Spanish pensions set to rise about 3.5% in 2027. Pensions in Spain follow average inflation over the 12 months to November, so September’s 4.9% flash CPI pushes the estimated increase to around 3.5%, the largest since 2024. elEconomista puts the extra cost to the state at about €8 billion; the final figure will be confirmed in mid-December (BBVA Mi Jubilación, elEconomista).
Bundesbank sees German growth doubling. President Joachim Nagel said Germany’s economy could grow by about 1% this year, twice the central bank’s June forecast, helped by exports and state spending on defence and infrastructure. Stronger growth could also keep pressure on the European Central Bank to hold borrowing costs high (Reuters, Bloomberg).
⚡ Energy & bills
UK diesel breaks its all-time record. The average forecourt price reached 200.01p a litre, above the previous peak of 199.09p set in June 2022, according to the RAC. Filling a 55-litre tank now costs about £110, almost £32 more than at the end of February, and the motoring group is urging the government to cut fuel duty or VAT in this month’s Budget (RAC, DMNews).
OPEC+ expected to hold output steady. Seven core members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, meet today and delegates expect November quotas to stay unchanged. Actual production is about 5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels because of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, so physical oil flows matter more for pump prices than official targets (OilPrice, investingLive).
🏢 Companies
AstraZeneca opens a job-cut process in Spain. The drugmaker has told worker representatives it plans to reduce staff at its Madrid headquarters and Barcelona hub, mainly in administrative and commercial roles, while research and development will be protected. No figure has been given: local reports speak of several dozen jobs out of more than 1,500 in Spain, and the UGT and CCOO unions have asked for urgent meetings (Catalunyapress, Crónica Global).
🔢 One number to know
200.01p
The average price of a litre of diesel in the UK, the highest ever recorded and the first time it has topped £2 (RAC).
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🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Today (Sun), during the day | OPEC+ online meeting of seven core members | Sets November oil output targets |
| Today (Sun), 22:00 | Polls close in Brazil (17:00 Brasília); counting begins | The result could move the real and Brazilian assets on Monday |
| Mon 5 Oct, 16:00 | US ISM services PMI (September) | Health check on the largest part of the US economy |
| Wed 7 Oct, 20:00 | Fed minutes (15–16 September meeting) | Clues on how close the Fed came to raising rates |
| Thu 8 Oct, 13:30 | ECB meeting accounts | The ECB’s thinking as eurozone inflation climbs |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- World Economy in 24 Hours: October 4 — Brazil votes; OPEC+ meets
- EU spent €17.9bn on energy aid in 2026, mostly untargeted
- Stocks rise as weak jobs report cools Fed rate-hike bets
- Tool: see what rising prices do to your savings with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.