Brent crude jumped about 4% to above $104 a barrel on fears of renewed US-Iran fighting, pushing stocks lower from Seoul and Tokyo to Europe as US and French bond yields stay near their highest since 2002. Germany doubled its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% even as August exports unexpectedly fell, Samsung reported a record quarterly profit, and Portugal’s government sent its 2027 budget to parliament.
Spain
BBVA Research lifts Spain’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% but warns energy will push inflation up. The bank’s research unit raised its 2026 GDP forecast by two tenths to 2.6% and kept 2027 at 2.1%, while expecting inflation of 3.6% this year and 3.2% next. It estimates that dearer oil and gas could take 0.4–0.5 points off growth and add 0.8–0.9 points to inflation through the end of 2027, and its scenario assumes another quarter-point interest-rate rise in December. Higher inflation and rates mean family budgets and mortgage payments stay under pressure even as jobs keep growing, with employment seen up 2.4% this year. (EFE / Infobae, Capital, BBVA)
Experts start work on the 2027 minimum-wage rise. Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz chairs on Thursday the first meeting of the advisory committee that will recommend next year’s minimum wage, currently €1,221 a month in 14 payments (€17,094 a year) after a 3.1% rise for 2026. The ministry wants the increase settled before the November 29 general election, arguing it should keep pace with the recent rebound in inflation; the CCOO union has called for a rise of more than 5%. The decision directly affects the pay of the lowest-earning workers and labour costs for small businesses. (EFE / Infobae, Press Digital)
Catalonia
Small-business group Pimec puts storm damage to companies at €117.5 million. The employers’ association estimates the recent heavy rains cost businesses between €65 million and €208 million, with €117.5 million its central figure: €46.1 million in wages for about 1.8 million hours not worked, €37.3 million in lost activity, €28.9 million in material damage at some 2,400 firms and €5.1 million in clean-up and other costs. Vallès Oriental accounts for nearly half the total, and about 71% of the losses come from stoppages that insurance usually does not cover. Pimec calls the Catalan government’s €5 million in aid insufficient and wants faster, larger support for small firms and the self-employed. (Ara, VIA Empresa, Crónica Global)
Steelmaker Celsa returns to profit and opens the door to a sale or stock-market listing. The Barcelona-based group earned €50.7 million in the first half of 2026, against a €3 million loss a year earlier, on revenue of €1,786 million, and cut its net debt to €1,134 million from €3,689 million in November 2023. Its board now has a mandate to find an exit for its owners, four investment funds that took about 98% of the company in a 2023 debt-for-equity swap, either through a sale or a listing; chairman Rafael Villaseca said there have been no contacts with buyers yet. The outcome will decide who controls one of Spain’s largest steel producers and its Catalan plants. (Ara, VIA Empresa)
France
Borrowing costs climb back towards 4.9% as debt worries weigh on the euro. France’s 10-year government bond yield rose back to about 4.92% on Thursday after two days of relief, close to its highest level since 2002, and the euro slipped to around $1.119 as concerns about French public debt spread. Finance Minister Roland Lescure has said the government will lean slightly more on shorter-term debt because demand for 30-year bonds has become harder to find. Higher state borrowing costs make it harder to fund public services and tend to feed through to mortgage and business loan rates. (Fortune, AP, Investing.com)
Trade deficit narrows to €6.1 billion in August as imports fall. France’s goods trade deficit shrank from a revised €6.6 billion in July, customs data showed on Wednesday, because imports dropped about 1.5% to €60.3 billion while exports slipped 0.8% to €54.2 billion. The energy bill eased slightly to €3.8 billion but remains above a year earlier, and the 12-month deficit stands at €62.7 billion. A persistent deficit means France keeps spending more abroad than it earns, which weighs on growth at a time of tight public finances. (AFP / Boursorama, France-Épargne)
United Kingdom
House prices stall in September as mortgage costs climb. The Lloyds (formerly Halifax) index showed the average home unchanged at £298,441 both on the month and on the year, after a 0.3% fall in August and below forecasts of a small rise. Prices rose 7.4% in Northern Ireland but fell 2.2% in London, while the average five-year fixed mortgage reached 6%, the highest in three years, according to Moneyfacts. Flat prices help first-time buyers a little, but higher borrowing costs are squeezing affordability. (Lloyds Bank, Investing.com, PA / AOL)
Bank of England’s Mann warns inflation has become embedded. Rate-setter Catherine Mann said inflation could reach about 4% around the turn of the year, when many wage deals are set, and that high inflation is becoming entrenched. She was one of three members who voted for a rise to 4% at the last meeting, when the Bank kept its rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote, and markets now expect a hike on November 5. A rate rise would lift costs for tracker-mortgage holders and new borrowers, while improving returns on savings. (Reuters / Investing.com, Sharecast)
Germany
Government more than doubles its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%. In its autumn projection presented on Thursday, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche’s ministry raised expected growth this year to 1.3% from 0.5% in spring, and forecast 1.1% for 2027 and 0.6% for 2028. It credits exports, including a one-off boost from stockpiling in the second quarter, and higher public and defence spending, while warning that energy-driven price rises will keep household spending subdued and private investment slow to recover. A firmer outlook supports jobs and tax revenue, but the ministry says it depends heavily on the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. (Bloomberg, WirtschaftsWoche, dpa / Radio Osnabrück)
Exports unexpectedly fall 0.8% in August as US sales drop. Exports slipped to €137.6 billion while imports rose 0.9% to €118.1 billion, narrowing the trade surplus to €19.5 billion from €21.6 billion in July, the statistics office said; economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.6% rise. Shipments to the United States, Germany’s biggest market, fell 6.3% on the month, while exports to the UK and China rose. Weaker exports put pressure on factory jobs in an economy that still relies heavily on selling abroad. (Reuters / Investing.com, IndexBox)
Italy
Diesel climbs back above €2.26 a litre after the fuel-tax cut expires. With the six-month excise discount on diesel ending on October 5, the national self-service average rose to €2.261 a litre on Wednesday, with petrol at €2.040, according to ministry data reported by Italian media. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said the government is ready to use the “mobile excise” mechanism, which recycles extra VAT revenue into lower fuel duty, with about €170 million available, though no decision has been taken. Drivers, hauliers and farmers face higher fuel bills while the government weighs how much relief it can afford. (Quotidiano Nazionale, Agenzia Nova, LaPresse)
Portugal
Cabinet approves the 2027 budget and sends it to parliament. The Council of Ministers approved the 2027 state budget proposal on Thursday morning, and Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento was due to hand it to parliament the same afternoon, ahead of the October 12 deadline. Measures already decided put about €4.78 billion of pressure on next year’s accounts, mainly from higher spending commitments, according to finance ministry figures reported by ECO. With the Socialist Party planning to abstain, the bill is expected to pass its first vote on October 27–28 before a final vote on November 24; it will set taxes, pensions and public-sector pay for 2027. (ECO, RTP, Jornal de Negócios)
United States
30-year mortgage rate hits 7.49%, highest in almost three years. The average contract rate on a conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.49% from 7.30% in the week to October 2, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday, and total applications fell 4.2%. Refinancing demand dropped 8% and is 56% below a year earlier, while purchase applications fell 2%. Each step up in rates adds hundreds of dollars a month to a typical new mortgage, keeping many buyers out of the market. (HousingWire, MBA)
Stocks slip from records as bond yields hit 24-year highs and the Fed leans towards another hike. The Dow fell 0.66% to 51,179.87 on Wednesday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each lost 0.22%, after the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.36% and the 30-year reached its highest since 2002 before a strong 10-year note auction eased the pressure. Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed most officials expect another rate rise to be appropriate by year-end, and stock futures pointed lower again on Thursday as oil surged. Treasury yields set the base for mortgage, car-loan and business borrowing costs, and falling shares hit retirement accounts. (Yahoo Finance, AP, CNBC)
Canada
TSX drops 1.7% as rising US yields hit banks and miners. The S&P/TSX composite index fell 607.65 points to 35,041.86 on Wednesday, led by gold and materials stocks, while big banks also slid, with Royal Bank down 2.3% and TD 3.4%. The Canadian dollar eased to about 70.1 US cents as US long-term yields touched their highest since 2002. The losses hit the retirement savings of Canadians heavily invested in bank and resource shares. (Baystreet, Archyde)
Mexico
Car production falls 15.1% in September. Mexico built 301,803 light vehicles in September, down from 355,589 a year earlier, and exports fell 11.9% to 277,369 units, statistics agency INEGI reported on Wednesday; domestic sales rose 7.9%. Bloomberg Línea calls it the steepest drop since 2021 and links it to US tariffs of 25% on imported vehicles, uncertainty over the review of the USMCA trade pact and production shifting to the US. The car industry is one of Mexico’s biggest employers and sources of dollar income, so a prolonged slump would weigh on jobs and the peso. (EFE / Infobae, Bloomberg Línea, Clúster Industrial)
Brazil
Oil auctions raise about R$3.5 billion, with Petrobras the biggest buyer. In a record pre-salt round on Wednesday, the regulator ANP sold 7 of 13 blocks for about R$530.5 million in signing bonuses to companies including Petrobras, PRIO, Equinor, Galp, CNOOC and Sinopec. A separate concession auction the same afternoon sold 49 exploration blocks for about R$3 billion, most of it paid by Petrobras for areas in the Campos Basin, and Petrobras shares rose about 1%. The money boosts federal revenue, and the blocks could add to future oil output and royalties. (Agência Brasil, O Tempo, eixos)
Argentina
Industry and construction rebound in August but stay below last year. Factory output rose 1.9% from July after seasonal adjustment but was 3.2% lower than a year earlier, while construction edged up 0.4% on the month and fell 4.4% on the year, statistics agency INDEC said on Wednesday. Over January–August, industry is down 2.7% and construction up 0.8%, with 11 of 16 industrial sectors shrinking. Weak manufacturing limits job creation even as inflation has slowed. (Infobae, La Nación)
Morocco
Dirham slides against the dollar and euro as the trade deficit widens. The dirham has lost roughly 6.5–7% against the dollar since early August, with Bank Al-Maghrib’s reference rate near 9.97 dirhams per dollar this week, and the euro has moved above 11 dirhams. In January–August imports rose 15.8% while exports grew 8.7%, widening the trade deficit by 25.4% to 282.6 billion dirhams, partly because of the energy bill. Economists quoted by local media say reserves of about 500 billion dirhams rule out a currency crisis, but a weaker dirham makes imported fuel, food and goods more expensive. (Le360, Hespress)
Egypt
Foreign reserves reach a record $57.35 billion. The Central Bank of Egypt said on Wednesday that net international reserves rose to $57.35 billion at the end of September, the ninth monthly increase in a row and about $7.8 billion more than a year earlier. Foreign-currency holdings rose while the value of gold reserves fell. Larger reserves help the central bank defend the pound and pay for imports such as fuel and wheat; September inflation data are due around October 10. (Ahram Online, Arab News)
Nigeria
Dangote refinery cuts diesel price to N1,700 a litre. The Dangote refinery lowered its diesel gantry price by N80 to N1,700 a litre from Wednesday, its second cut in a week after a reduction from N1,850 to N1,780 on October 1. The new price is close to the estimated cost of importing diesel. Cheaper diesel lowers costs for transport, generators and factories, which can ease pressure on food and goods prices. (Legit.ng, Tribune)
South Africa
Reserve Bank warns inflation risks are spreading. In its Monetary Policy Review, the South African Reserve Bank said the risk of “second-round” effects, with the oil shock feeding into wages and wider prices, is increasing the longer high oil prices last. It expects inflation, 4.4% in August, to return to its 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027, and kept its 2026 growth forecast at 1.2%; the next rate decision is in November. The hawkish tone signals that borrowing costs for home loans and cars are unlikely to fall soon. (Reuters / CNBC Africa, BusinessDay)
China
Stocks fall as mainland markets reopen after the National Day holiday. The CSI 300 index of top Shanghai and Shenzhen shares lost about 1.1% on Thursday, its first session since September 30, while the tech-heavy STAR 50 dropped nearly 4% in morning trade and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell further. Traders cited high tech valuations ahead of earnings season, fresh US-China tech frictions and rising US bond yields. Weak markets weigh on the savings of China’s tens of millions of retail investors. (Reuters / Business Recorder, Fortune, AP)
Foreign-exchange reserves fall $38 billion in September. China’s reserves dropped by $38.1 billion to $3.4003 trillion at the end of September, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said, citing a stronger dollar and lower global asset prices after the US Federal Reserve raised rates. The central bank added to its gold holdings for a 23rd straight month. Reserves are China’s buffer for steadying the yuan, which affects the price of its exports and imports. (Xinhua, People’s Daily)
Japan
Nikkei closes below 70,000 as oil and bond yields rise. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.42% to 69,042.11 on Thursday, its second daily drop, as Wall Street’s slide, high US bond yields and Brent crude above $100 weighed on chip and financial stocks. The yen stayed weak at around 158 per dollar. Falling share prices dent the value of Japanese savers’ growing stock investments, and a weak yen makes imported energy and food dearer. (TradingKey, AP, Fortune)
Current-account surplus rises 12% to ¥4.06 trillion in August. The surplus beat forecasts thanks to a 21.6% jump in income from overseas investments, even though the goods trade balance swung into a deficit of about ¥688 billion as crude and commodity import costs rose, Finance Ministry data showed. Imports grew 26.7% and exports 16.9% from a year earlier. Japan’s investment income cushions the impact of costly energy imports on the yen. (Xinhua, FXStreet)
India
Banks raise loan rates after the RBI hike. Following the Reserve Bank of India’s quarter-point increase in the repo rate to 5.5%, state-owned lenders including Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda and Indian Bank lifted their repo-linked lending rates by 0.25 points, mostly from Thursday; PNB’s rises to 8.35% and Bank of Baroda’s to 8.15%. More banks are expected to follow. Borrowers with floating-rate home, car and business loans tied to these benchmarks will see higher monthly payments. (Business Today, Upstox)
South Korea
Samsung posts a record ₩107.4 trillion quarterly profit, but its shares and the Kospi fall. Samsung Electronics estimated third-quarter operating profit at about 107.4 trillion won (around $80 billion), up roughly 780% from a year earlier and the first time a Korean company has topped 100 trillion won in a quarter, as AI-driven demand lifts memory-chip prices. Even so, its shares fell 2.42% and the Kospi dropped 2.62% to 6,625.93 on Thursday, its third straight decline, as foreign and institutional investors sold amid high US bond yields and surging oil. Samsung is the biggest holding of Korea’s pension funds and millions of retail investors, so its fortunes shape household wealth. (Korea Times, TradingKey, IBTimes)
Middle East
Brent jumps about 4% to over $104 on fears of renewed US-Iran fighting. Brent crude rose 4.1% to $104.32 a barrel and US crude 4.2% to $91.94 early on Thursday, after US media reported that Washington is preparing options for a possible resumption of major combat operations against Iran, though no decision has been announced. A tanker was also struck off Qatar and storms threatened Gulf of Mexico output. Oil above $100 keeps fuel, freight and food prices high for importing countries and adds to pressure on central banks. (AP, Fortune, investingLive)
Gulf stock markets slip as Saudi-Houthi tensions escalate. Saudi Arabia’s main index fell 0.5% to 10,542 on Wednesday, with Qatar also down 0.5% and Abu Dhabi and Dubai lower, after Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and strikes on Aden airport; Oman and Kuwait edged up. Al Rajhi Bank and Emirates NBD were among the decliners. Market jitters add to the economic strain on a region the World Bank expects to shrink this year. (Reuters / Business Recorder, MarineLink)
Australia
ASX 200 falls 0.8% as auction clearance rates sink to a three-month low. The benchmark index closed down 66.8 points at 8,660 on Thursday, led by miners, and now sits more than 6% below its August peak, while the 10-year bond yield rose back above 5.4%. Cotality data showed the combined capital-city auction clearance rate fell to 45.4%, the lowest since July, with auction numbers down 38% on a year earlier, after the Reserve Bank lifted its cash rate to 4.6%, the highest since 2011. Higher rates are cooling the housing market and squeezing mortgage holders, while falling shares trim superannuation balances. (ABC News, AP)
Sources & method
Compiled by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance from the sources linked in each item, cross-checked in at least two outlets, and updated several times a day. Read our editorial policy.