The Morning Briefing · Monday, 12 October 2026 · Published 07:25 CET · 5-minute read
Good morning. Oil is lower this morning after President Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, although Moscow has not confirmed it and Kyiv says Russian strikes continued. The US bond market is closed for a holiday, but a busy week of bank results and inflation data starts tomorrow.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- Oil slips on a contested truce. Brent fell about 1.5% to near $103 in Asian trade; Kyiv says Russia kept hitting power plants.
- Finance chiefs gather in Bangkok. IMF–World Bank meetings open amid warnings on energy, debt and high bond yields.
- Telecoms still reeling. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell 10–13% on Friday as SpaceX moved into mobile.
- Big week ahead. Banks open earnings season on Tuesday; US inflation data land on Wednesday.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,366.17 | +0.64% |
| Dow Jones | 51,654.95 | +0.83% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | ↑ higher |
| IBEX 35 | 19,033.10 | +0.55% |
| Brent crude (Mon, Asia) | $103.18 | −1.5% |
| Gold (Mon, Asia) | about $4,206/oz | +0.3% |
| EUR/USD | — | ↑ dollar slightly weaker |
| US 10-year yield | about 5.24% | → little changed |
Stock figures are Friday’s closing levels. US stock futures rose about 0.2%–0.3% late on Sunday, while Asian shares were mixed in thin trade with Tokyo shut for a holiday. Gold climbed back above $4,200 an ounce as oil and the dollar eased (Yahoo Finance, Reuters / Business Recorder).
🌍 Economy
IMF and World Bank meetings open under a cloud. Finance officials meet in Bangkok this week. In her curtain-raiser, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the energy shock from the Iran war, record public debt and high bond yields are weighing on growth, saying “winter is coming”. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is skipping the gathering (Reuters / Business Standard, The Daily Star).
Traders trim bets on a Fed hike this month. Futures now price only about a 17%–18% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates in October, although a hike by December is still seen as likely. Wednesday’s September CPI report is expected to show headline inflation of around 3.6%–3.7% and core inflation near 2.5% (Reuters / Investing.com, Newsquawk).
⚡ Energy & bills
Trump’s “energy ceasefire” meets scepticism. Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities “effective immediately”. President Zelensky said the news was new to him and that Ukraine would comply if Russia did, but later reported Russian strikes on power plants, including in Kharkiv; the Kremlin has not confirmed any deal. The announcement came days after Washington eased sanctions on Russian diesel (Axios, Al Jazeera, Euronews).
Pump prices stay high as Gulf output restarts. Regular US gasoline averaged about $4.36 a gallon over the weekend, roughly $1.25 more than a year ago, according to AAA. Shell, Chevron and BP are working to restore Gulf of Mexico production shut by Hurricane Isaias, and European diesel futures fell about 3% this morning (AAA, Reuters / Business Recorder).
🏢 Companies
SpaceX’s mobile push hammers telecom stocks. Verizon and AT&T fell about 10% and T-Mobile about 13% on Friday after SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for its planned Starlink Mobile service. The deal needs approval from the US regulator, the FCC (Quartz / Yahoo Finance, Forbes).
Banks kick off a high-stakes earnings season. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Tuesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Analysts expect S&P 500 profits to grow about 30% from a year earlier, with AI infrastructure spending behind more than half of that growth (EconoTimes, Reuters / Investing.com, FactSet).
🔢 One number to know
3%
The IMF’s forecast for global growth in 2026, which it sees little reason to change despite the oil shock; new forecasts are due during this week’s Bangkok meetings (Reuters / Business Standard, The Daily Star).
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🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| All day | US bond market closed for Columbus Day; Japan and Canada on holiday | Thin trading; US stocks still open 15:30–22:00 |
| All week | IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok | New global growth and debt forecasts |
| Today (time TBC) | Speeches by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Riksbank’s Aino Bunge | Clues on whether rates rise again |
| Tue 13 Oct, before US open | JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo results | First read on banks, borrowers and the economy |
| Wed 14 Oct, 14:30 | US consumer prices (CPI) for September | Key inflation test before the Fed’s next decision |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- Week Ahead: US CPI, Bank Earnings, IMF Meetings (Oct 12–18)
- PJM governors team up to fight rising power bills: what it means
- World Economy in 24 Hours: October 11 — New Hormuz tanker strike; EU-China car truce
- Tool: see what rising prices have done to your money with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.