Forecasters now expect one of the strongest El Niño events on record to shape the coming U.S. winter. Milder weather in the northern states could trim how much gas or electricity you burn for heat, but higher energy prices mean many households should not count on a smaller bill.

Key takeaways

• NOAA’s Oct. 8 update says a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027, possibly the strongest since 1950.
• AccuWeather expects a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the northern U.S., with cities such as Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis running 3–4°F above average.
• Warmer weather cuts heating demand, but rising prices, especially for electricity and heating oil, can cancel out the savings. Southern households may see wetter, cooler conditions.

What happened

On Oct. 8, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in place. It reported that sea-surface temperatures in the key Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific were 2.1°C above normal. The agency said a strong-to-very-strong El Niño is likely to last through January–March 2027. It also estimated an 83% chance that, over October–December, the event will exceed every El Niño since 1950 on its main strength measure. NOAA cautioned that a big event makes typical El Niño weather patterns more likely but does not guarantee them.

AccuWeather’s 2026–27 winter forecast, released Oct. 7, points the same way. Its lead long-range forecaster, Paul Pastelok, said the event has the “potential to be the strongest El Niño since 1950.” The forecast calls for a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the northern U.S. and below-average snowfall from the Northwest through the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast. It also expects wetter conditions in the South and mid-Atlantic. AccuWeather projects lower heating demand than last winter in New York and Chicago but higher demand in Kansas City and Salt Lake City. It adds that lower demand “doesn’t necessarily mean lower energy bills.”

Prices explain why. In September, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) projected that average U.S. heating costs would rise 8.7% this winter, even assuming El Niño warmth: +9.0% for electricity, +5.8% for natural gas, +8.7% for propane and +31.3% for heating oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Oct. 6 outlook, expects households that heat with natural gas or propane to spend somewhat less than last winter. It expects electric-heat homes to pay slightly more and heating-oil homes about 21% more.

What it means for your bill

Heating demand is measured in heating degree days (HDDs): each degree a day’s average temperature falls below 65°F counts as one. Fewer HDDs means less fuel burned. Here is a rough example for a gas-heated home in Chicago. The usage figure is an assumption, and the prices are national averages.

• Normal winter demand: Chicago’s 1991–2020 normals add up to 355 + 713 + 1,069 + 1,234 + 1,015 + 808 = 5,194 HDDs from October through March (National Weather Service).
• The El Niño effect: if December–February (90 days) average 3.5°F warmer, the midpoint of AccuWeather’s range, that removes about 3.5 × 90 = 315 HDDs. That is 315 ÷ 5,194 ≈ 6% less heating demand.
• The winter gas bill: EIA forecasts residential gas at $14.47 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) this quarter and $13.20 next quarter, about $13.84 on average. A home burning an assumed 75 Mcf from October to March pays about 75 × $13.84 ≈ $1,038.
• Potential saving: 6% of $1,038 ≈ $63 for the season. That is close to the 5.8% rise NEADA projects for gas heating costs (on this example, about $1,038 − $1,038 ÷ 1.058 ≈ $57), so the milder weather might roughly cancel out higher prices.

Real savings will probably be a bit smaller. Gas used for water heating and cooking doesn’t drop much in a warm winter, and your local gas rate may be well above or below the national average. Fixed monthly customer charges don’t change with the weather either. For heating-oil homes in the Northeast, a mild winter helps, but EIA still expects bills to be about a fifth higher because oil prices are up more than 30%. In the South, where many homes heat with electricity, a wetter and possibly cooler winter could mean higher demand at a time when electricity prices are rising.

What you can do

• Don’t bank on the forecast. Seasonal outlooks deal in odds, and a single cold snap can wipe out a month of savings. Budget for a normal winter at this year’s prices.
• Bank the warm days. A programmable or smart thermostat turns mild weather into real savings by lowering heat when you’re asleep or away. See our tips on how to save on heating this winter.
• Smooth out the bills. If a big January bill would strain your budget, ask about level payments. Our guide on budget billing pros and cons explains the trade-offs.
• Apply for help early. If you may qualify for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), contact your state agency now. Funds are limited, and benefits are paid in dollars, so they cover less fuel when prices are high.

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct. 8, 2026)
• AccuWeather: 2026–2027 United States Winter Forecast (Oct. 7, 2026)
• U.S. EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook (Oct. 6, 2026)
• NEADA: Winter 2026–27 heating cost projections (Sept. 14, 2026)
• National Weather Service Chicago: Monthly and yearly climate normals, 1991–2020

Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Read our editorial policy.