The Morning Briefing · Monday, 26 October 2026 · Published 07:25 CET · 5-minute read
Good morning. A packed week starts with a political shock in Latin America’s largest economy and a breather in oil prices. Three central banks, US growth data and Big Tech earnings follow before Friday.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- Lula wins Brazil’s runoff. His 51.8% victory is contested by Flávio Bolsonaro, and Brazilian assets were sold hard in early trading abroad.
- Oil takes a breather. Brent slipped to about $115 in Asia after a 6% weekly gain, but attacks on Saudi Arabia continue.
- Central-bank week begins. The Fed (Wednesday) and ECB (Thursday) are expected to hold, with December hikes still on the table.
- Amex cuts 3,500 jobs. Even with profit up 28%, the card giant is trimming about 5% of staff.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close (Fri 23 Oct) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,623.68 | −0.52% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,955.34 | −0.21% |
| Dow Jones | 52,215.16 | −1.23% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | ↓ lower |
| IBEX 35 | 18,989.80 | +0.40% |
| Brent crude | $116.72 (about $115 in Asia on Monday) | ↓ lower this morning |
| Gold | about $4,000/oz | ↓ lower |
| EUR/USD | 1.1223 (Monday, Asia) | ↑ higher |
| US 10-year yield | just under 5% | ↑ higher |
Asian shares were mostly lower early on Monday: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edged down and Seoul’s Kospi fell more than 1%, a sign of nerves about the AI trade before this week’s tech results. US stock futures edged higher as oil eased (AP, AFP).
🌍 Economy
Lula returns, and Brazil’s markets brace. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s runoff with 51.8% of the vote, a margin of about 4.4 million, but Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede and asked for the result to be annulled. A Tokyo-listed fund tracking Brazilian stocks fell sharply and currency derivatives pointed to a steep drop in the real before local markets open (CBS News, Business Today).
The Fed is expected to hold on Wednesday. After raising rates in September, the Fed is widely expected to pause, with inflation still well above its 2% target. Markets lean towards another increase in December, so the tone of the press conference will matter more than the decision itself (AP, AFP).
The ECB looks set to pause too. In a Reuters poll, 70 of 73 economists expect the deposit rate to stay at 2.50% on Thursday, and 64 expect a quarter-point hike in December. Higher oil prices are the main upside risk to eurozone inflation (investingLive, Admirals).
⚡ Energy & bills
Oil eases, but the risk premium stays. Brent fell about 1.3% to around $115 a barrel early on Monday and US crude to about $101.6, after Brent gained roughly 6% last week. The Houthis said they hit a Saudi airport and oil facilities on Saturday, and Saudi Arabia reported intercepting more missiles and drones on Sunday (Reuters via Business Standard, AFP).
Trump weighs Iran: deal or escalation. President Trump told Fox News he must decide whether to “finish it off” or “make a deal” with Iran. Any escalation would hit oil supply again, and with it petrol, diesel and heating costs (Bloomberg via The Spokesman-Review, AFP).
🏢 Companies
American Express trims 5% of its workforce. Amex will cut about 3,500 jobs, its first major layoffs in roughly a decade, even as third-quarter profit rose 28% to $3.71 billion. Executives said the aim is fewer management layers and readiness for AI, not a business slowdown (AP, Fortune via Yahoo Finance).
Earnings season hits top gear. Verizon reports before the US open today and Cadence Design and Nucor after the close. Alphabet and Microsoft follow on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday, as investors look for proof that AI spending is paying off (StockTitan, Earnings Whispers).
🔢 One number to know
51.8%
Lula’s share of the vote in Brazil’s runoff, enough for a fourth term in Latin America’s largest economy, though the result is being challenged (CBS News).
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | Germany Ifo business climate (October) | Mood in Europe’s largest economy (September: 89.9) |
| Before US open (call 13:30) | Verizon results | A first big US report of the week |
| 14:00 | Brazilian stock market opens | First local reaction to Lula’s win |
| 14:30 | Wall Street opens | Note: New York is five hours behind CET this week |
| After US close | Cadence Design, Nucor, Whirlpool results | Chip-design software, steel and household demand |
| Wed 28 Oct, 19:00 | Fed rate decision | The main event of the week |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- Week Ahead: Fed, ECB, US GDP & PCE, Big Tech Earnings (Oct 26–Nov 1)
- Duke Energy NC bills set to rise as low-income credit nears end
- The Dow fell 652 points. Why the percent matters more
- Tool: see what rising prices do to your savings with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.