The Morning Briefing · Friday, 9 October 2026 · Published 07:15 CET · 4-minute read
Good morning. Doubts about how fast artificial intelligence can make money hit chip stocks on Thursday, while oil jumped back above $104 on Iran tensions and a storm heading for the US Gulf Coast. Here is what moved and what to watch as the week closes.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- The AI trade wobbles. A report that OpenAI earns far less than estimated sent the Nasdaq down about 1.3%.
- Oil back above $104. Brent rose about 4%, which keeps pressure on fuel and heating bills.
- Fed hawks are united. All 19 officials backed September’s hike and most expect another by year end.
- Europe slips again. The IBEX 35 lost almost 1% as oil and bond worries weighed on the region.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ≈ 7,765 | ≈ −0.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | ≈ 27,190 | ≈ −1.3% |
| Dow Jones | 51,231.64 | +0.10% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | ↓ lower | ↓ lower |
| IBEX 35 | 18,928.9 | −0.99% |
| Brent crude | ≈ $104 | ↑ about 4% |
| Gold | ≈ $4,110/oz | → little changed |
| EUR/USD | ≈ 1.12 | ↑ slightly higher |
| US 10-year yield | ≈ 5.23% | ↓ about 5 bp |
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for a second day after records earlier in the week, while defensive names such as Walmart and Visa kept the Dow slightly positive (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics). In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell about 0.75% to its lowest since June, and Frankfurt and Milan each lost more than 1% (Reuters / Investing.com, Press Digital).
🌍 Economy
Fed minutes show a united front. All 19 policymakers, not only the 12 voters, supported September’s quarter-point rise to 3.75%–4.00%, and most said another increase “would likely be appropriate by year end”. Markets still put only a modest chance on a move at the October 27–28 meeting, so the debate is about timing rather than direction (BabyPips, Bloomberg).
Layoffs stay low even as hiring stalls. Initial US jobless claims came in at 197,000 for the week to October 3, slightly below the roughly 200,000 forecast. That contrasts with last week’s payrolls report, which showed only 29,000 jobs added in September and unemployment rising to 4.2% (Bloomberg Government, CNBC).
France’s bond strains stay in focus. Bank of France governor Emmanuel Moulin called the pressure on French debt serious but said the conditions for ECB intervention are not met, urging Paris to pass a budget instead. Euro-area borrowing costs edged up again as higher oil revived inflation worries (Reuters / Investing.com, Briefs).
⚡ Energy & bills
Oil climbs on Iran and a Gulf storm. Brent settled near $104.30 a barrel, up about 4%, after attacks on tankers in the Gulf, reports of possible US strikes on Iran and a hurricane approaching the US Gulf Coast. Prices eased from their highs after President Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms (Reuters / Investing.com, Yahoo Finance).
US petrol eases a little, but stays at a record for the season. AAA’s national average for regular gasoline fell about 5 cents in a week to $4.36 a gallon. The motoring group says pump prices remain the highest ever for this time of year, and Thursday’s crude rally makes further relief less certain (AAA).
🏢 Companies
OpenAI report rattles chipmakers. The Financial Times reported that OpenAI’s annualised revenue is about $50 billion, roughly $20 billion below earlier estimates, reviving questions over whether AI spending will pay off. Nvidia fell about 3%, and Arm, Intel and Marvell each dropped more than 6% (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics).
PepsiCo sells more, earns less. Third-quarter revenue rose 5.6% to $25.3 billion and core earnings per share reached $2.34. But the company cut its full-year core profit growth forecast to 2.5%–3.5%, from at least 5% before, while slightly raising its sales outlook (PepsiCo filing, Yahoo Finance).
🔢 One number to know
$20 billion
The gap between OpenAI’s reported annualised revenue and earlier estimates, according to the Financial Times, enough to knock the whole AI trade on Thursday (Trading Economics).
🔥 Trending on The Daily Economy
- SpaceX seeks $40 billion in debt for Nvidia chips: what it means: why the AI chip race is now being paid for with borrowed money.
- Why gold prices are falling — and what it means for you: how record bond yields are taking the shine off the classic safe haven.
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| During the day | ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Piero Cipollone speak | Clues on how the ECB views oil and bond-market stress |
| 14:30 | Canada jobs report (September) | A check on North American hiring after weak US payrolls |
| 15:30 | Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid speaks | Another voice on whether a second hike is needed |
| 16:00 | Delta Air Lines third-quarter earnings call | How airlines cope with jet fuel above $100 oil |
| 16:00 | University of Michigan consumer sentiment (prelim. October) | Includes households’ inflation expectations |
| 16:00 | US factory orders (August) | A read on business investment |
| After markets close | S&P Global rating review of the UK | Could affect UK borrowing costs |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- Nasdaq falls 1.3% as AI worries hit chips; oil jumps
- What’s really in the price of a gallon of gas
- UK weighs £100 boost to Warm Home Discount as bills set to rise
- Tool: see how inflation eats into your savings with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.