The Morning Briefing · Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Published 07:20 CET · 4-minute read
Good morning. It is inflation day in the US: September consumer prices land this afternoon, a fortnight before the Fed’s next decision. Overnight, chipmaker ASML posted record sales, and Bank of America reports today after a $1.2 billion regulatory fine.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- US CPI at 14:30 CET. Economists expect annual inflation to rise to about 3.6%, which could shape the Fed’s 28 October decision.
- ASML posts record sales. A €11.7 billion quarter is an early test of whether the AI spending boom is holding.
- Bank of America fined $1.2 billion. US regulators cited money-laundering and sanctions failures, hours before its results.
- Oil holds near $106. Diesel-supply hopes are fighting the Saudi-Houthi conflict for control of prices.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | ↓ 0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,204.38 | ↓ 0.15% |
| Dow Jones | 51,670.10 | ↓ 0.35% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | ↓ lower |
| IBEX 35 | 19,210.70 | ↓ 0.39% |
| Brent crude ($/barrel) | 105.69 | ↓ 0.9% |
| Gold | — | → little changed |
| EUR/USD | — | ↑ euro higher |
| US 10-year yield | 5.22% | ↓ slightly lower |
Wall Street ended Tuesday almost flat as mixed bank results met a sell-off in memory-chip stocks after China’s CXMT unveiled plans for a more advanced chip. In Madrid, ACS and Grifols pulled the IBEX back towards 19,200 points.
🌍 Economy
September inflation is today’s big test. Forecasters see US consumer prices up roughly 0.6% on the month and 3.6%–3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August, largely because of energy. Core inflation is expected to be tamer at around 0.2% for the month; a hotter reading would revive talk of another rate hike (Kiplinger).
Fed’s Williams sees one more hike, then a pause. New York Fed President John Williams said one further rate increase this year looks appropriate but he sees no need to raise rates in 2027. He called AI the inflation driver he is watching most closely (FXStreet).
IMF nudges up its global forecast. The fund now expects world growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with the US at 2.3%, the eurozone at 1.1% and Spain at 2.5%. It assumes oil averages $96 this year and warns that an AI-driven stock correction or higher bond yields could knock the outlook (Fortune).
⚡ Energy & bills
Brent eases but stays above $105. Brent settled 0.9% lower at $105.69 while US crude rose 0.4% to $94.14. Hopes that a US-Russia diesel arrangement could free up fuel supply were offset by the escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict, including reports of loud booms near Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran (Oklahoma Energy Today).
OPEC cuts its demand outlook again. The producer group trimmed its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to about 0.2 million barrels a day from 0.4 million, while output from OPEC+ countries jumped by roughly 0.9 million barrels a day in September. More supply and weaker demand are what households need for fuel bills to ease (Newsquawk).
🏢 Companies
ASML beats the gloom with a record quarter. The Dutch chip-equipment maker reported net sales of €11.7 billion and net income of €5.0 billion, and guided to €14.2–15.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Its chief executive said some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. The shares had fallen on Tuesday on worries about Chinese competition (ASML).
Big banks: trading booms, JPMorgan misses. JPMorgan earned $5.57 a share, below the $5.90 expected, partly because of securities losses. Goldman Sachs beat comfortably as equities trading revenue jumped 72% to $6.44 billion, and Citigroup’s interest income topped forecasts (TheStreet, Forbes).
🔢 One number to know
$1.2 billion
The penalty US Treasury regulators imposed on Bank of America for money-laundering and sanctions failures, including more than $5 billion in suspicious transactions reported late. The bank says it will take a non-deductible charge of about 17 cents a share in the third quarter (PYMNTS).
🔥 Trending on The Daily Economy
- Why big bank earnings this week matter for your money — what this week’s bank results can tell you about savings rates and loans.
- Why US consumer sentiment just fell to 46.3 — and what it means — the mood of American households, explained.
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | BlackRock Q3 results | A read on investor flows into funds |
| 12:45 | Bank of America Q3 results | First numbers since the $1.2bn fine |
| 13:30 | Morgan Stanley Q3 results | Will the trading boom seen at Goldman repeat? |
| 14:30 | US CPI, September | Key input for the Fed’s 28 October decision |
| 20:00 | Fed Beige Book | Snapshot of business conditions across US regions |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- How banks profit from your savings: JPMorgan’s results explained
- Record El Niño may ease northern heating bills, but prices bite
- Electric Blanket vs Space Heater: Which Is Cheaper to Run?
- Tool: see what rising prices do to your money with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.