The Morning Briefing · Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Published 07:20 CET · 4-minute read
Good morning. US inflation came in hotter than expected yesterday, and pump prices did most of the damage. Rate-hike bets jumped, tech stocks slid, and today brings US retail sales, producer prices and results from chip giant TSMC.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- US inflation hits 3.7%. A hotter-than-forecast September reading puts a Fed rate hike on 28 October back in play.
- Tech leads Wall Street lower. The Nasdaq fell almost 2% as higher bond yields hit AI-related stocks.
- Brent holds near $106. A Houthi strike on an Aramco building in Saudi Arabia kept supply fears alive.
- Bank of America profit falls. A $1.2 billion regulatory penalty dented its quarter, while BlackRock beat forecasts.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,718.94 | ↓ 1.1% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,692.87 | ↓ 1.9% |
| Dow Jones | 51,621.48 | ↓ 0.1% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | ↑ higher |
| IBEX 35 | 19,230.70 | ↑ 0.1% |
| Brent crude ($/barrel) | near 106 | ↑ slightly higher |
| Gold | — | ↓ lower |
| EUR/USD | — | ↓ euro lower |
| US 10-year yield | — | ↑ higher |
The inflation surprise pushed Treasury yields up and revived bets on another Fed hike, which hit richly valued AI and data-centre stocks hardest. European markets gave back most of their early gains after the US data, leaving the IBEX flat at around 19,230 points.
🌍 Economy
Hotter inflation puts an October Fed hike back on the table. US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% on the year, up from 3.4% in August and above the 3.6% forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. Market odds of a rate rise at the Fed’s 27–28 October meeting jumped to about one in two, from around one in five before the release (BLS, CBS News).
The euro slides as the rate gap widens. The single currency fell about 0.7% to roughly $1.11 after the US figures, its weakest level since May 2025. The Fed’s main rate sits at 3.75%–4%, against 2.5% for the ECB’s deposit rate, and the two central banks decide a day apart on 28 and 29 October. A weaker euro makes dollar-priced oil more expensive for European households (FXStreet, Estrategias de Inversión).
⚡ Energy & bills
Brent holds near $106 after a strike on Aramco. Houthi forces hit an Aramco administrative building in Dhahran, causing a limited fire, according to Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry. Brent settled slightly higher near $106 and US crude rose about 1% to around $95. The IEA warned that tight diesel markets could last into 2027, even as Gulf crude exports recovered to about three-quarters of pre-war levels (investingLive, Trading Economics).
The pump is where inflation hurts most. Energy prices are up 20.4% on a year ago, and petrol alone accounted for more than half of September’s price rise. The US national average is about $4.33 a gallon, compared with $2.98 before the Iran war began (BLS, CBS News).
🏢 Companies
Bank of America’s profit falls after its penalty. Third-quarter net income dropped to $6.9 billion from $8.3 billion a year earlier, weighed down by the $1.2 billion regulatory penalty over money-laundering and sanctions failures; excluding it, profit was $8.1 billion. Revenue rose 3% to about $30 billion but fell short of forecasts, and the shares dropped sharply in early trading (Investing.com, HDFC Sky).
BlackRock beats as assets reach $15.5 trillion. The world’s largest asset manager took in $205.5 billion of net new money in the quarter. Revenue rose 19% to $7.75 billion and adjusted earnings of $15.93 a share topped analysts’ estimates (BlackRock, HDFC Sky).
🔢 One number to know
34.2%
How much US petrol prices rose in the year to September, with a 9.1% jump in September alone (BLS).
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | TSMC Q3 results call | First big read on AI chip demand this season |
| 11:00 | Eurozone industrial production, August | How factories are coping with the energy shock |
| 14:30 | US retail sales, September | Are high pump prices slowing shoppers? |
| 14:30 | US producer prices, September | Pipeline inflation after a hot CPI |
| 14:30 | US jobless claims; New York and Philadelphia Fed factory surveys | Health of jobs and manufacturing |
| 19:30 | Fed’s Barkin speaks | Clues on the 28 October decision |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- HHS releases $3.6B in heating aid early: what it means for you
- How banks profit from your savings: JPMorgan’s results explained
- How Much Does a TV Cost to Run? Costs by Screen Size
- Tool: see what 3.7% inflation does to your money with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.