The Morning Briefing · Friday, 16 October 2026 · Published 07:25 CET · 4-minute read
Good morning. A second hot inflation report in two days hit Wall Street early yesterday, but investors rotated out of AI stocks rather than out of the market, and the Dow ended with a solid gain. Today brings regional bank results, final euro-area inflation and US factory output.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- Wholesale prices jump 1.3%. The biggest monthly rise since March 2022 keeps pressure on the Fed.
- Dow up 1.1%, Nasdaq flat. Money moved out of AI names and into retail, health care and homebuilders as yields fell.
- TSMC posts a record profit. AI chip demand lifted earnings 69%, though the shares still slipped.
- Warsh gives no rate signal. The Fed chair said in Bangkok that he won’t prejudge the 28 October decision.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,744.06 | ↑ 0.3% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,713.03 | ↑ 0.1% |
| Dow Jones | 52,177.69 | ↑ 1.1% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | ↓ lower |
| IBEX 35 | — | ↓ lower |
| Brent crude ($/barrel) | near 106 | → little changed |
| Gold | — | ↑ higher |
| EUR/USD | about 1.12 | ↑ euro higher |
| US 10-year yield | about 5.09% | ↓ about 0.10 pts |
Stocks opened lower after the producer-price data, then recovered as Treasuries rallied and investors swapped AI and chip stocks for defensive and consumer names; the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose more than 1%. In Europe, tech weighed on the Euro Stoxx 50 and the IBEX slipped, while broader indexes such as the Stoxx 600 edged higher.
🌍 Economy
US wholesale inflation posts its biggest jump in four and a half years. The producer price index rose 1.3% in September, double the 0.6% forecast, as energy prices for businesses climbed 10.8% in a month. Core producer prices, which strip out food, energy and trade margins, rose 0.5% and are up 5.0% on the year, a sign that costs may keep feeding through to shoppers (ABA Banking Journal, Advisor Perspectives).
Shoppers spend more, but mostly at the pump. US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating forecasts, but petrol stations accounted for roughly 70% of the increase. Stripping out fuel, sales grew just 0.2%, and the figures are not adjusted for inflation (ActionForex, Investing.com).
Warsh keeps his cards close. Speaking with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok early this morning, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give guidance on rates, saying policy will follow real-time data, and called the AI-driven investment boom a potential positive for supply. The dollar eased after his remarks, nudging the euro to around $1.123 (Kaohoon International, FXStreet).
The UK economy surprises on the upside. British GDP grew 0.1% in August, when economists had expected a small contraction, and output rose 0.7% in the three months to August, led by services (ONS, FXStreet).
⚡ Energy & bills
The IEA will release its last 100 million barrels of emergency oil. Member countries have already put 330 million barrels on the market under March’s pledge, and the remainder, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel, will follow in a timely manner, taking the total above the 400 million target. Brent ended little changed near $106, while US crude rose about 3% to roughly $98 as cheaper shipping lifted demand for American barrels (The National, Rigzone).
🏢 Companies
TSMC beats again, but the market wanted more. The world’s largest contract chipmaker made a record NT$763 billion (about $23.5 billion) in the third quarter, up 69% on a year earlier, on revenue up 51%. It guided fourth-quarter sales to $52.3–54.3 billion and kept its 2026 investment budget at $60–65 billion, but a cautious tone on 2027 and the wider chip sell-off left its shares lower (Grafa, The Tribune).
CoreWeave’s debt worries rattle the AI trade. The cost of insuring the AI cloud provider’s debt against default hit a record, with credit swaps implying odds of default above 60% within five years. The shares rebounded about 6% after Nvidia’s Jensen Huang said the company was getting financially stronger and needed no backstop (Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance).
🔢 One number to know
10.8%
How much US producer energy prices rose in September alone, the main driver of the 1.3% jump in wholesale inflation (ABA Banking Journal, citing BLS).
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Euro-area inflation, final September data (Eurostat) | Confirms or revises the flash reading before the ECB meets on 29 October |
| 11:30–12:30 | M&T Bank, Regions, Citizens and Truist results | How regional lenders are coping with 5% yields |
| 13:00 | Travelers results | Insurance costs and storm claims |
| 14:30 | US import and export prices, September | How energy and the dollar feed into traded goods |
| 15:15 | US industrial production, September | Factory, mining and utility output |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
- Social Security’s 3.6% raise: what a COLA really does
- HHS releases $3.6B in heating aid early: what it means for you
- How Much Does a TV Cost to Run? Costs by Screen Size
- Tool: see how rising prices eat into your savings with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.