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The Daily Economy

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Dominion projects Virginia power bills up 57% by 2046

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By The Daily Economy editorial team

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Dominion Energy’s latest long-term plan projects that a typical Virginia household’s electric bill could climb from about $180 a month today to roughly $284 by 2046, a rise of about 57%. A separate calculation required by state regulators puts the 2046 figure above $458.

Key takeaways

  • Dominion’s preferred plan projects a 1,000 kWh/month residential bill of about $258 in 2036 and $284 in 2046, up from $180.31 as of October 1.
  • A methodology required by Virginia’s State Corporation Commission (SCC) projects about $320 in 2036 and $458 in 2046; Dominion says that method overstates bills.
  • These are planning projections, not approved rate increases. Any actual change to rates still needs regulatory approval.

What happened

Dominion Energy Virginia, the state’s largest electric utility, filed its 2026 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) update with the SCC in mid-October. An IRP is a utility’s 20-year roadmap for how it expects to meet demand: which power plants it may build, how much it may buy from the regional grid, and what that could mean for customers. Local coverage of the bill estimates in the filing, including a WTVR CBS 6 report on October 26, has brought the numbers to wider attention this week.

The plan assumes fast growth in electricity demand, with data center consumption identified as a key driver of the higher forecast. Dominion’s preferred portfolio includes more than 39 gigawatts of new generation over 20 years, a mix led by solar and including roughly 9 gigawatts of new natural gas plants, along with batteries, wind and small modular nuclear reactors. The company says the plan would reduce its reliance on electricity bought from PJM, the regional grid operator, and stresses that the filing is not a final list of projects.

The filing includes two sets of bill projections for a residential customer using 1,000 kWh a month. Under Dominion’s own method, the bill rises to $258.03 in 2036 and about $283.65 in 2046. Under the method the SCC requires, it reaches $320.26 in 2036 and $458.22 in 2046. Dominion argues the SCC approach “does not reflect anticipated growth in sales,” which would spread fixed costs across more kilowatt-hours.

The plan lands during a wider debate over Dominion bills. Governor Abigail Spanberger has asked regulators to require a six-year freeze on residential base rates as a condition of Dominion’s proposed merger with NextEra Energy, and SCC staff have recommended rejecting the deal as currently structured. A base-rate freeze would not cover every line on the bill: fuel costs and separate riders can still change.

What it means for your bill

Nothing changes on your bill today because of this filing. But the projections give a sense of the direction utilities and regulators are planning for. Here is the math for a household using 1,000 kWh a month, the benchmark Dominion uses:

  • Today: $180.31 a month × 12 = about $2,164 a year, or roughly 18 cents per kWh all-in.
  • 2036, Dominion’s method: $258.03 × 12 = about $3,096 a year. That is $932 more per year than today, a 43% increase, or about 3.6% a year on average.
  • 2046, Dominion’s method: $283.65 × 12 = about $3,404 a year, $1,240 more than today. Spread over 20 years, that works out to about 2.3% a year.
  • 2046, SCC method: $458.22 × 12 = about $5,499 a year, more than 2.5 times today’s bill, or about 4.8% a year.

Two points help put this in context. First, these figures are in nominal dollars, so part of any increase would be ordinary inflation. Second, they are conditional estimates: the real path depends on fuel prices, how fast data center demand actually arrives, what the SCC approves, and how costs are shared between household and large commercial customers. As one economist quoted by The Center Square put it, the numbers are “projections conditional on different assumptions,” not predictions.

Usage still matters at any price. At Dominion’s projected 2036 rate of about 25.8 cents per kWh, cutting use by 100 kWh a month (10%) would save about $25.80 a month, or roughly $310 a year.

What you can do

  • Know your baseline. Check your monthly kWh use and the separate base, fuel and rider charges on your statement so you can see what actually moves. Our guide on how to read your electric bill walks through each line.
  • Tackle the big loads first. Heating, cooling and water heating usually dominate household use. Air sealing, attic insulation and thermostat settings tend to pay back faster than gadgets. See 25 proven ways to lower your electric bill.
  • Weigh long-lived purchases against future prices. If you are replacing a furnace, water heater or roof in the next few years, run the payback math on efficient options (heat pumps, heat pump water heaters, rooftop solar) using higher future rates as well as today’s.
  • Follow the SCC process. The SCC accepts public comments on Dominion cases. Its website lists open dockets and how to comment if you want your view on the record.

Sources

Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the sources above. Read our editorial policy.