The Morning Briefing · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Published 07:25 CET · 4-minute read
Good morning. The Fed held rates but left the door open to a hike, and Big Tech results split overnight: Microsoft impressed while Alphabet stumbled. Today brings the ECB decision and a double dose of US growth and inflation data.
☕ Today in 30 seconds
- Split Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%. Two officials wanted a hike, so borrowing costs may not have peaked.
- Alphabet falls about 9% after hours. Profit missed forecasts as AI spending weighed, while Microsoft rose on strong cloud sales.
- Oil climbs again. Brent settled above $115 after new Houthi attacks, keeping fuel bills high.
- ECB, US GDP and PCE today. A busy afternoon for anyone with a mortgage, savings or a euro loan.
📈 Markets
| Index/Asset | Last close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.98 | ▲ +0.28% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,549.85 | ▲ +0.27% |
| Dow Jones | 52,475.10 | ▲ +0.19% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | — | → little changed |
| IBEX 35 | 18,883.5 | ▼ −1.45% |
| Brent crude | ≈ $115 | ↑ higher |
| Gold | ≈ $4,040 | ↓ lower |
| EUR/USD | ≈ 1.114 | ↑ higher |
| US 10-year yield | ≈ 5.05% | ↑ higher |
Wall Street notched a third straight gain, helped by a 10.6% jump in Oracle and a 1.75% rise in chip stocks, while long-term Treasury yields edged up after the Fed. Madrid went the other way, dragged down by Santander (−5.6%) and the Acciona group (Yahoo Finance, Europa Press).
🌍 Economy
The Fed pauses, but two members want a hike. The Federal Reserve kept its rate range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack backing a quarter-point increase. The statement described growth as “strong” and inflation as “elevated”, and Chair Kevin Warsh announced the Fed will hold fewer policy meetings from 2027. Bond traders still see a high chance of a hike on 9 December (The Nation, Yahoo Finance).
The ECB is expected to hold today. After two hikes since June, the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave its deposit rate at 2.50% at 14:15 CET. Investors will also watch French borrowing costs, with France’s 10-year yield above 5% for the first time since 2002, and markets still price further hikes in the months ahead (Reuters via GBAF, Admirals).
US growth and inflation land at the same minute. At 13:30 CET the US publishes its first estimate of third-quarter GDP alongside September’s PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model points to growth of about 3.3%, and a hot PCE reading would strengthen the case for a December hike (StockTitan, TraderFactor).
⚡ Energy & bills
Houthi attacks push oil higher. Brent settled at about $115.32 a barrel and US crude rose roughly 3% after reports of a Houthi attack on Aden airport and a claimed missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, which Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm. A surprise drop in US crude stockpiles added support (The Nation, Europa Press).
US pump prices hold just under $4.30. The AAA national average for regular gasoline is around $4.27–$4.29 a gallon, down from $4.41 at the start of October thanks to cheaper winter-blend fuel. With crude rising again, that relief could be short-lived (AAA).
🏢 Companies
Alphabet’s profit misses despite a cloud boom. Revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion but fell just short of forecasts, and earnings of $2.12 a share were well below expectations, partly because of an $8.7 billion unrealised loss on investments. Google Cloud was the bright spot, beating estimates with $30.7 billion in revenue, but heavy AI spending pushed free cash flow negative. Shares fell about 9% after hours (Yahoo Finance UK, Investing.com).
Microsoft beats on Azure. Revenue grew 19% to $92.3 billion, ahead of forecasts, with Azure cloud sales up 48% and guidance for the next quarter above expectations. “We still have demand that exceeds supply,” said finance chief Amy Hood. Shares rose in after-hours trading (SiliconANGLE, Unite.AI).
🔢 One number to know
5.05%
The US 10-year Treasury yield after the Fed decision, near its highest levels in years. It is the benchmark for US mortgage rates, so it matters for anyone buying or refinancing a home (Yahoo Finance).
🗓 What to watch today
| Time (CET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Before 14:30 | Eli Lilly, Mastercard and Caterpillar results | Health, consumer spending and industrial demand in one morning. |
| 13:30 | US Q3 GDP (advance), September PCE inflation, jobless claims | The key test for the Fed’s December decision. |
| 14:15 | ECB rate decision | A hold is expected; the signal on December matters for euro mortgages. |
| 14:45 | Christine Lagarde press conference | Her tone on oil-driven inflation will move the euro and bond yields. |
| After 21:00 | Amazon, Intel and Starbucks results | Another read on AI spending and the US consumer. |
Full week in our economic calendar.
📚 Read more
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- Tool: see what your money is worth today with our inflation calculator.
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Market data is for information only and is not investment advice.
Written by The Daily Economy editorial team with AI assistance and checked against the linked sources. Read our editorial policy.